Macro/Forecasting
Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy. coauthored with Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting. Volume 36, Issue 2, April–June 2020, Pages 373-398
Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures. coauthored with Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting. Volume 33, Issue 2, April–June 2017, Pages 442-457
Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks. coauthored with James M. Nason. Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 19 / Special Issue 04 / June 2015, pp 836 - 882
Forecasting Using Relative Entropy
Joint with John C. Robertson and Charles H. Whiteman. Published in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, (June 2005), 37, 3, 383-401.
Permanent Income and Transitory Variation in Investment and Output
Joint with Lance A.Fisher and Hyeon-seung Huh. Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, (June 2003), 25, 2, 149-68.
Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis
Coauthored with John C. Robertson. Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, (July 2001) 19, 3, 324-30.
Economic History
The transmission of the financial crisis in 1907: an empirical investigation. with Jon R. Moen. Cliometrica. May 2018, vol. 12(2), pages 277-312
Liquidity Provision during the Crisis of 1914: Private and Public Souces. Joint with Margaret M. Jacobson. Journal of Financial Stability Volume 17, April 2015, Pages 22–34. Special Issue: Instead of the Fed: Past and Present Alternatives to the Federal Reserve System.
Close but not a Central Bank: The New York Clearing House and Issues of Clearing House Loan Certificates
Chapter 5, pp. 102-125, in Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History: Essays to Commemorate the Federal Reserve System’s Centennial Edited by Owen F. Humpage [formerly titled "The Reluctant Central Bankers: Clearing House Loan Certificates in the National Banking Era"]
Liquidity Creation Without a Central Bank: Clearing House Loan Certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907. Joint with Jon R. Moen. Journal of Financial Stability 8 (December 2012), pp. 277-91.
Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction During the Panic of 1907 Joint with Jon R. Moen. Published in Journal of Economic History, Vol. 60, No. 1, (March 2000), pp.145-63.
Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the U.S. Economy During the National Banking Era Joint with Jon R. Moen), Published in Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 35, No. 4, (October 1998), pp. 381-404.
The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of Trust Companies Joint with Jon R. Moen. Published in Journal of Economic History, Vol. 52, No. 3 (Sep., 1992), pp. 611-630
Federal Reserve Economic Review Publications
Vector Auto-regressions: Forecasting and Reality.
Joint with John C. Robertson. Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, First Quarter 1999/Volume 84, Number 1, pp. 4-18.
Data Vintages and Measuring Forecast Model Performance.
Joint with John C. Robertson. Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1998/Volume 83, Number 4, pp. 4-20.
Lessons from the Panic of 1907. Joint with Jon R. Moen. Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, May/June 1990/Volume 75, Number 3, pp. 2-13.
Comments
Where Would the Federal Funds Rate Be, If It Could Be Negative? Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, October 12, 2012.
Comment on "Trends in the Aggregate Labor Force" by Kenneth J. Matheny presented at the 33rd Annual Economic Policy Conference of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. October 16-17, 2009.
Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy. coauthored with Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting. Volume 36, Issue 2, April–June 2020, Pages 373-398
Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures. coauthored with Saeed Zaman. International Journal of Forecasting. Volume 33, Issue 2, April–June 2017, Pages 442-457
Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks. coauthored with James M. Nason. Macroeconomic Dynamics / Volume 19 / Special Issue 04 / June 2015, pp 836 - 882
Forecasting Using Relative Entropy
Joint with John C. Robertson and Charles H. Whiteman. Published in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, (June 2005), 37, 3, 383-401.
Permanent Income and Transitory Variation in Investment and Output
Joint with Lance A.Fisher and Hyeon-seung Huh. Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, (June 2003), 25, 2, 149-68.
Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis
Coauthored with John C. Robertson. Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, (July 2001) 19, 3, 324-30.
Economic History
The transmission of the financial crisis in 1907: an empirical investigation. with Jon R. Moen. Cliometrica. May 2018, vol. 12(2), pages 277-312
Liquidity Provision during the Crisis of 1914: Private and Public Souces. Joint with Margaret M. Jacobson. Journal of Financial Stability Volume 17, April 2015, Pages 22–34. Special Issue: Instead of the Fed: Past and Present Alternatives to the Federal Reserve System.
Close but not a Central Bank: The New York Clearing House and Issues of Clearing House Loan Certificates
Chapter 5, pp. 102-125, in Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History: Essays to Commemorate the Federal Reserve System’s Centennial Edited by Owen F. Humpage [formerly titled "The Reluctant Central Bankers: Clearing House Loan Certificates in the National Banking Era"]
Liquidity Creation Without a Central Bank: Clearing House Loan Certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907. Joint with Jon R. Moen. Journal of Financial Stability 8 (December 2012), pp. 277-91.
Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction During the Panic of 1907 Joint with Jon R. Moen. Published in Journal of Economic History, Vol. 60, No. 1, (March 2000), pp.145-63.
Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the U.S. Economy During the National Banking Era Joint with Jon R. Moen), Published in Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 35, No. 4, (October 1998), pp. 381-404.
The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of Trust Companies Joint with Jon R. Moen. Published in Journal of Economic History, Vol. 52, No. 3 (Sep., 1992), pp. 611-630
Federal Reserve Economic Review Publications
Vector Auto-regressions: Forecasting and Reality.
Joint with John C. Robertson. Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, First Quarter 1999/Volume 84, Number 1, pp. 4-18.
Data Vintages and Measuring Forecast Model Performance.
Joint with John C. Robertson. Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1998/Volume 83, Number 4, pp. 4-20.
Lessons from the Panic of 1907. Joint with Jon R. Moen. Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, May/June 1990/Volume 75, Number 3, pp. 2-13.
Comments
Where Would the Federal Funds Rate Be, If It Could Be Negative? Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, October 12, 2012.
Comment on "Trends in the Aggregate Labor Force" by Kenneth J. Matheny presented at the 33rd Annual Economic Policy Conference of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. October 16-17, 2009.
